Day Eleven

Croatia 0 Spain 1

Italy 2 Ireland 0

 

For some teams, the end of the group phase presents a challenging problem of stats and psychology. Croatia, for instance, had a tricky problem going into the Spain game.  They knew Italy would probably beat Ireland, so containing Spain was never going to be enough, as a 0-0 would see them eliminated. 1-1, on the other hand, would very likely see them through.

This meant that a single Spanish goal would effectively be irrelevant. A second Spanish goal, though, would actually count for something, as a 2-1 defeat would put Croatia out.

So they made a plan, to contain Spain in the first half and get at them in the second, by which time Spain were statistically less likely to have enough time to score twice. It's exactly what anyone else would have done in their position, but it meant the first half of Croatia v Spain was by some margin the dullest half so far. This is a sort of compliment to Croatia - to make Spain boring is really quite an achievement - but it's also 45 minutes of our lives we'll never get back.

There were two games, of course, and both were televised, but unfortuntely this was the one with the greatest number of permutations hanging on it, so your diligent reporter was kind of stuck with it. Both teams seemed afraid of losing. Spain had most of the possession, as you'd expect, but the knowledge that they would be through if they didn't concede may have hung heavily on them.

Here's my first half notes. After 26 minutes Mandzukic was tackled right on the edge of the box. It could easily have been a foul, and therefore could easily have been a penalty, but in the end it was given as a corner.

That was it. Nothing else of any note happened, except that after half an hour we heard that Italy were a goal up against Ireland. They showed us the goal, in a highlights box in the top left corner of the screen. It was a routine goal, but a goal nonetheless. As things stood, Italy were top, Spain were second and Croatia were out.

Oh yes, and David Villa. You may have wondered where he is. His tibia is all better now, nurse having adequately kissed it in the oxygen tent, but he was laid up with it so long he failed a pre-tournament fitness test. The commentator was clearly missing him, as he managed to say his name instead of David Silva several times. That commentating error was the other first half highlight. You may scoff, but it was all over Twitter.

The Barcelona player I was missing was Messi. Yes, he's Argentinian, but he seems Spanish, and you have to admit he'd be a good fit for their team. Frankly, if they can pick Catalans I don't see why they can't pick anyone.

Things picked up a bit in the second half, and in the 59th minute Croatia had their best chance of the game. A Spanish attack broke down, and Modric skipped past the covering midfielder to find himself in space. He held it up long enough for the surprised looking Croatian forward line to catch up with him, then crossed to Rakitic, whose header was just kept out by Casillas. He should have headed it down, but instead it came at a convenient height for the keeper.

Bosquet decided he needed to make a change. He took Torres off, and brought on Navas of Sevilla. Croatia, not to be outdone, brought on Jelavic. They were out if things stayed as they were, and according to their plan it was time to have a bit of a go.

Silva went off for Fabregas. Twitter folk with no grasp of statistics suggested that they should be bringing on a striker, but in the real world with all the atoms in it the laws of probability were swinging the balance of the game. Spain were through as long as they didn't concede, and given that nobody knew what order group D was going to finish in it didn't really matter who was first and who was second.

So every time Croatia broke, Spain were quickly back in numbers. Croatia, meanwhile, brought on Eduardo, who had a stonewall penalty turned down when Arbeloa pulled him down from a corner with a move accurately analysed by Alan Hansen as a judo throw. Arbeloa managed to do it at an angle where all the officials were unsighted, which I guess is a kind of footballing skill in itself.

Three minutes from time, Spain scored. Fabregas lobbed the ball over the Croatian back line to Iniesta, who wasn't offside, although Navas was. Both players were clear. Navas held back behind Iniesta, who passed across to him, and he tapped it into an empty net. It should be offside, but according to the actual rules it isn't.

What no-one in the stadium seemed to realise, neither commentators nor Croatian fans, was that it only mattered for Spain. Croatia were still in the same position. If they scored, they went through, if they didn't they were out.

Meanwhile we heard that Balotelli had scored to double Italy's lead. That didn't matter either. Croatia could still go through with a goal. They got a free kick, and even the keeper went up for it. The referee whistled for a Croatian infringement in the Spanish box, and that was it.

In the end, and after all the calculations, every country in the group ended up with a different points total. Spain had 7 points, Italy 5, Croatia 4 and Ireland 0.

It was harsh on Croatia, who had beaten Ireland, got a draw out of Italy and only just lost to Spain. It was only harsh on Ireland in the sense that the fans probably deserved a better team, but you can only select the players you have. Spain and Italy, meanwhile, lie in wait for the top two from England's group.

How the groups stand

I'm not really expecting anyone to read and digest this as such. Just keep it as a handy guide while you're watching the games.

I've proofread it several times, but to be honest I'm kind of glazing over a little on some of the details. Let me know if I've failed to filter out fallacious facts. Ooh, I'm alliterating again. It comes over me like a rash sometimes.

The BBC are showing Saturday and Monday on BBC1 and BBC3, the ITV are showing Sunday and Tuesday on ITV1 and ITV4. The BBC are also broadcasting games live on their website, so you can sit in your living room with your laptop balanced precariously on top of the telly, watching two games at once. I love the modern world. Whether ITV are planning the same isn't quite clear from the website, but it appears likely. If not, there's always www.tvcatchup.com, which will show you all the ITV channels live anyway.

Group A

This is the most complicated group. Any combination of the 4 teams could still qualify, with the exception of Poland and the Czech Republic. If either of these teams qualifies, the other one goes home.

Greece must beat Russia, or they're eliminated. If they beat Russia by 3 goals and the other game is a draw, they top the group.

Russia only need a point to be sure of progress. If they win they top the group.

Poland definitely progress if they win. If they lose or draw, they're out.

The Czech Republic definitely progress if they win. If they draw, they're also through unless Greece beat Russia, in which case there are various permutations depending on goal difference. If they win, they top the group unless Russia win.

It's interesting to note that Greece goes to the polls on Sunday. Greeks want to reject austerity measures, but fear the consequences. In a tight election, whether they vote for hope or fear may well be influenced by whether their team has sent a "yes we can" or "no we can't" message to the people. Bankers across the world will be cheering on the Russians. I wonder how we should respond to that?

Group B

A point against Denmark is enough for Germany to top the group. Even if they lose, they can only fail to progress if Portugal beat Holland. In this case, Denmark, Germany and Portugal are all on 6 points, and their order comes down to goal difference.

Holland are definitely out unless they beat Portugal by two clear goals and Germany beat Denmark. In that case, Germany top the group and Holland go through on goal difference.

Denmark and Portugal are both on 3 points, with 3 goals for and against. If they both lose and Holland win by 2 clear goals, Germany and Holland progress. If they both draw, Portugal progess with Germany on the head-to-head rule. If they both win, we have the situation outlined in the German paragraph above.

If Denmark win and Portugal lose or draw, Denmark top the group and Germany are second.

If Portugal win and Denmark lose or draw, Germany top the group and Portugal are second.

Group C

Ireland are definitely going home. Italy have to beat Ireland or they go home and Spain and Croatia go through, Spain needing to draw to top the group.

For the rest of this analysis, assume Italy beat Ireland.

If the other game is won, Italy are second and the other winner top the group.

If the Spain Croatia game is drawn 0-0, then Italy top the group and Spain are second. This is because the head to head would show 3 draws, with Italy having scored 2 goals and Spain and Croatia having scored 1. Spain would be second because of their goals against Ireland.

If Spain and Croatia draw 2-2, or with any higher goal total, both sides go through and Italy go home. This is because the head to head would show 3 draws, with Italy having scored 2 goals and Spain and Croatia having scored 3. Spain would top the group because of their goals against Ireland.

If Spain and Croatia draw 1-1, then all 3 head to head games were drawn 1-1, so placings are determined by goal difference against Ireland.

If Spain and Croatia draw 1-1 and Italy beat Ireland 3-1, things become complicated. Spain go through, but Italy and Croatia now both have 5 points each, with 5 goals for and 3 against. The head-to-head doesn't help, as their game was drawn. In this situation, factors such as the disciplinary record of both sides would come into play.

If Spain and Croatia draw 1-1 and Italy beat Ireland 4-0, then Spain and Italy go through, but both have 5 points, with 6 goals for and 2 against. The same situation as in the previous paragraph applies, to determine who finishes top.

Group D

Sweden are definitely going home.

If France and England both win their games, they both go through. As they drew their game, the order would be decided on goal difference. If France win by an equal or higher margin than England, they top their group. If England win by two or more goals than France do, they top the group. If England win by one goal more, they go through unless France score more goals.

There is a possibility, for instance if England win 2-0 and France win 3-2, that both teams will have the same points, goals for and goals against. Again, the head-to-head doesn't help, as their game was drawn. In this situation, factors such as the disciplinary record of both sides would come into play.

If both games are drawn, France top the group with England in second place.

If France and England both lose their games, Ukraine top the group and France or England are second, depending on goal difference. The reverse of the previous discussion about goal difference would apply. England would need to lose by less goals than France to go through. If for instance England lost 1-0 and France lost 2-0, factors such as the disciplinary record of both sides would come into play.

 If England win and France lose or draw, England top the group and France are second.

If France win and England draw, France top the group and England are second.

If France win and England lose, France top the group and Ukraine are second.

If France draw and England lose,  Ukraine top the group with France second.

If England draw and France lose, England top the group and France are second on the head-to-head rule.

Unfortunately, the option we might all have liked, for England to top the group and host nation Ukraine to come second, is not available.

Day Seven

Poor, poor Ireland. The first team to have their fate decided. To be honest, their fate was decided as soon as they drew Spain, Italy and Croatia, but technically speaking it has to be confirmed on the pitch, and now it has been.

Roy Keane moaned about the Irish attitude, but as Gordon Strachan said, if you asked any Scottish fan they'd have swapped places with them in a heartbeat. Minnows are there as tasty snacks for the bigger fish, and most of them would rather be eaten by a shark than a tuna.

Italy 1 Croatia 1

This one was a slow burner, with Italy starting the stronger. Balotelli had a shot in the third minute after a defensive lapse, which went just wide. Soon after he had another effort blocked, and Marchisio fizzed the rebound just over.

Balotelli's next effort was punched away by the Croatian keeper, Pletikosa, who followed up with the best save of the game, stopping Marchisio not once but twice.

It didn't help. Pirlo had a free kick a minute later, which he curled over the wall and into the right corner. Pletikosa got a hand to it, but it wasn't enough. This happens to keepers a lot. They make a great save, then a minute later it's in anyway. As a fan, do you celebrate the skill, or mourn the lack of consequence?

Something similar was happening to Balotelli. His next shot, just over, was a quality effort. Nothing changed because of it. Just after, he was taken off for di Natale again. He'd done much better in this game than he had against Spain, but it didn't matter

At least it meant he wasn't responsible for the Croatian equaliser. Chiellini in the Italian goal got hopelessly underneath the cross, and Mandzukic found himself unmarked on the six yard line. He controlled it neatly, and scored off the post. The Croatian fans considered which element to celebrate with, and chose fire, expressed through the medium of flares.

Fortunately they threw them onto the pitch rather than at anyone, but it brought the game to a halt anyway. Mark Bright was horrified that the fans had been able to get them in, when the BBC staff had been rigorously searched. My sympathies lay with the minimum wage stewards asked to process a crowd numbering tens of thousands in time for kickoff. If I had to choose between looking in a few camera bags and patting down the chanting posses of vigorously tattooed Croatians I'd probably have made the same choice they apparently had.

I also thought he was rather underestimating the ability of experienced fans to smuggle objects into football grounds. People are ingenious in the matter of subterfuge, or they'd never have been able to build a glider in Colditz. Flares fit invisibly down a trouser leg or inside a bulky jacket. Are you going to strip search everyone?

Towards the end Croatia pushed forward, and it seemed like they'd snatch a winner if either side did, but it finished 1-1. It was a tight game, that set us up nicely for a loose one.

Spain 4 Ireland 0

Ireland went into this with high hopes, which lasted all of four minutes. Silva picked up a great pass, but Dunne tackled him on the edge of the box. He didn't regain his balance quickly enough, though, and Ward left it to him. Torres pounced, ran round Ward like a galactico running round a Wolves player, blasted it through Given and that was the end of realistic Irish hope.

Jim Beglie described it as the ultimate test of Irish character. You felt there might be some more tests of Irish character on the way in the next 86 minutes.

In the end Ireland managed to hold things together until halftime. There were a few scary moments, and one moment of high comedy when the ref ran straight into Keith Andrews at full tilt and flattened him, but they might have been encouraged going out for the second half only one down.

Then Silva scored. Given punched a shot straight to him, but he still had to get it through three Irish defenders. It went past two right knees, and between the third pair of legs. People say that kind of thing is luck, but players like Silva seem to be lucky a lot.

The only issue now was goal difference. Assuming Italy beat Ireland, a draw between Spain and Croatia would leave the three continental teams on 5 points each, and goals against Ireland would be the decider.

Knowing this, Spain turned it on. Given made amends for any responsibility he might have felt for the first two goals with a top class save from Xavi.

Ireland had some pressure themselves. No real proper chances, but some briefly hopeful dead ball situations as they took the game into the Spanish half. It was a terrible idea, leading to the inevitable result. A hopeful Celtic scrimmage on the halfway line, the Spanish come away with it, Ireland are all out of position, Torres gets the ball through, goal. You never want to have a good spell against Spain, it just makes them angry.

Del Bosquet took Torres off for Fabregas, to safeguard him for the Croatia game. They had the goals they needed. The substitution in itself told you everything you needed to know. Ireland were playing a team who can bring on Cesc Fabregas to give another player a rest. They brought Maclean on for Duff, as if to highlight the gulf between the teams. He's a promising player, is Maclean, but he'll never be Catalan.

Keane had a decent effort soon after, well saved by Casillas. Nobody cared. Neither did it affect anything except goal difference when Fabregas scored a few minutes afterwards. It was a corner, the tiring Irish defence didn't pick him up, he dinked round a defender and slotted it in between Given and another defender. I normally check the BBC clips if I've missed players' names, but it hardly seems worth it with this one.

Three huge cheers for the Irish fans, though, and the Spanish ones too. They were supposed to be segregated, but somehow or other the Irish and the Spanish ended up half mixed together. I don't know if they'd swapped tickets with each other or what, but the green, orange and white looked very nice mixed in with the red and black. Some of the morons who blight the game from Dartford to the Dnieper must have been watching, so let's hope somewhere in the back of their minds they felt a little bit shamed.

Day Three

It was a big day, an exciting day, and I really wish the BBC had got it. I admit it makes sense to give Adrian Chiles the Croatia game as he's half Croatian himself, but there's one huge reason to prefer the BBC to ITV. Salford.

Yes, Salford, which is where the BBC coverage is coming from. Because it's so ugly (evidence), they film inside. ITV, on the other hand, have flown their whole team out to Poland and rented space in every beautiful city square in the country. Having spent all that money they seem to feel obliged to do everything on a balcony, so they can film Gordon Strachan in front of that basilica which looks old but was actually rebuilt in 1946. Strachan himself, of course, is a genuine Baroque original.

I'm generally all in favour of an outside broadcast, but they haven't been able to solve the technical problems. Sometimes it's the wind fucking up the mikes, the rest of the time it's brass bands, which seem to be everywhere they go. Either amateur salsa nights are a big thing in Poland, or Chiles baiting is their latest national sport.

There are other problems with the ITV coverage beyond sound quality. I think for instance of the tweets and texts they insist on running under their talking heads. If you must do that it's important to make the font big enough to read, and therefore big enough to ignore. ITV's was only legible if you squinted, which of course meant you found yourself squinting.

And while I'm at it, Roy Keane. They wheeled him out specially for the Ireland game, which makes him quite literally a professional Irishman. I realise they've paid for him now, but couldn't they just stick him in a bar somewhere and tell him he's doing the local colour? It's not like he's teetotal or anything, is it?

Fourthly and most obviously, the adverts. It doesn't really matter what your pundits think if their analysis has to be squeezed between two commercial breaks in a halftime slot. Also, football attracts the shoutiest ads. Did you know that billionaire financier Joe Lewis owns a large slice of Ladbrokes? If you're in the Bahamas right now, why not hunt him down and belabour him repeatedly about the face and body with a baseball bat, all the while screaming LADBROKES! GAME ON! into his baffled face in a cod Italian accent.

Spain 1 Italy 1

The Spanish national anthem is my favourite. It has no words at all. It's an awful grating racket, obviously, but at least it isn't an awful grating racket with a bloodthirsty lyric like most of the others.

The Italian one is more typical of the genre. Apparently Victory has bound Scipio's helmet upon her head, so let us join in a cohort, we are ready to die. This, I feel, may account for their lack of military success in more recent times. I'm sure cohorts were a great help at the battle of Zama, but military technology has moved on since then. If the Austrians are gassing you in the Dolomites, you may not want to be moving any closer together.

They'd got their formations right for the game though. You felt they'd learnt from the way other teams played in Spain in the World Cup. Back then team after team clammed up against them, hoping to contain their midfield and stop the through ball, but got tired and gave up the crucial goal after an hour or so. Today, Italy came to play.

And it worked for them. They had to survive some scares, like everyone else who plays Spain, but they had their own moments as well. Their best chance of the first half came right at the end, as Motta had a header which Casillas saved athletically. It was just after Balotelli got booked. It wasn't an awful tackle, just a bit high, and he might have got away with it if he hadn't been mouthing off earlier. One to watch, we all felt.

Spain, meanwhile, looked just a little bit fallible at times. The odd loose pass, some slightly idiosyncratic goalkeeping, nothing that would shock you from Poland or Greece, but this was Spain.

They had their moments though. Of course they did. They started with none of the four players identified on the squad list as a striker, but if you can play midfielders like Fabregas, Silva and Iniesta you'll probably get some chances, and they did.

Five of their eleven starters play for Barcelona, four for Real Madrid. Just stop and think about that for a moment. Nine out of eleven from two clubs. At this level, that's a hell of a thing. It gives you a cohesion no other national team could dream of. In this country it would mean nine from the Manchester clubs, and can you imagine them using that many English players? Or finishing first and second if they did?

The second half started dramatically. Fabregas and Iniesta shots were pushed wide. Balotelli got the ball off Ramos on the touchline, but then dithered long enough for him to get back and tackle. Almost immediately, del Bosque took him off for di Natale. Everyone makes mistakes, but Balotelli's always seem to be expressions of his personality. He'd got booked for petulance and recklessness, he'd fluffed his big chance - at this level that's enough.

An hour in, and against the normal run of things, Italy scored. Di Natale held his run just right, pushed through to get on the through ball and played it perfectly past a splayed Casillas. The contrast between di Natale's finishing and Balotelli's was obvious.

I'm not sure why the equaliser was such a surprise. Spain always score at about this point. Iniesta to Silva to Fabregas, it went. Barca to Barca, via Manchester. A small stepover from the Spaniard, a huge leap forward for Spain. Kind of what we expect.

Torres came on for Fabregas, and the rest of the game seemed to be about the chances he missed. First he got through on Casillas, who tackled him without going down and played it out for a throw in. Then he had a lob from outside the box which drifted agonisingly over. Shortly before, di Natale had stretched for a cross and just flicked it wide. But then he'd already scored.

It ended one all, a gripping match from two titans of the game. We'd had our main event, so the stage was set for the supporting feature. Who schedules these things?

Ireland 1 Croatia 3

They sang the Irish national anthem in Gaelic, but I looked up the translation. Out yonder lies the Saxon foe, it goes. Could they possibly mean us? Would they include Jackie Charlton? Soldiers are we ... mid cannon's roar and rifles' peal ... For love of the Gael, towards death or life ... oh for Christ's sake. How far we've come, and yet sometimes I don't think we've got anywhere at all. If people don't think war is glorious any more, why do they sing songs like that?

I do feel a certain warmth towards the Gaelic language, the only Gaelic speaker I've ever met having helped us push the car out of the Irish mud, but it must have been a challenge for the players. Nine of the eleven starters were actually born in Ireland, by the way, before anyone starts, but they're mainly east coasters, who speak English.

The weather was vile. Bad news for the players, but good for the cameras, which got to do lots of those slo-mo close ups with players grimacing and spray flying around.

The Irish played in shirts 1 to 11. It wasn't any kind of objection to the squad numbering system, they just selected numbers 1 to 11 in the squad. I guess Trappatoni knew who he wanted to play early on. That's nice. I like a manager who knows his mind.

Although he may have had his doubts when Croatia scored in the third minute. As soft goals go, it was Andrex quality. A cross was deflected, and Mandzukic slipped on the edge of the box and looped in a gentle header towards Given's right corner post. It should have been stopped, but Given was moving the wrong way and couldn't quite get across to keep it out.

There was an element of bad fortune to it. Mandzukic's body language in the split second before he slipped suggested he would strike at the opposite corner. His header was actually an excellent moment of improvisation, but a keeper of Given's standard will feel he should have done better.

It was a shame. We all want the Irish to do well. Some of their fans went with a banner that said Angela Merkel thinks we're at work. You want fans like that to have something to cheer.

After 18 minutes, they did. They got a slightly questionable free kick forty yards out, Corluka let St Ledger get on the wrong side of him on it and St Ledger headed home. The Irish fans celebrated with a Poznan in Poznan.

There seemed to be a whistle in the crowd as the kick came over. It wasn't the first time, it had happened a few times to apparent Croatian advantage, but you had to wonder if it was a factor in the goal.

The game as a whole reminded me why I like Championship football so much. It's lovely to watch the Xabis and Iniestas of this world doing their thing, but sometimes you want to see a bunch of also rans slipping and sliding in the mud as the ball flies anywhere but where they meant it to go.

Like many Championship games, a few talents stood out above the white noise of the rest. Jelavic has injected an element of flair into Goodison Park, and it looks like he's done the same for Croatia. Ireland don't really do flair, but what they lack in that department they make up for with a certain kind of monosyllabic punchiness. Dunne to Doyle, Doyle knocks it down to Duff, Duff to Keane. It may not be pretty, but it does cut down on the typing.

It was flair that told though. Just as Ireland were looking to the halftime whistle there was a scramble on the edge of the box,Ward hit his clearance about 150 degrees the wrong way, Jelavic was way ahead of the rest and it was 2-1 at the break.

Shortly after the restart it was 3-1. Mandzukic had another header, and Given wasn't quite quick enough. It his the post, bounced back off Given's head and went in.

As time went by, what tension there was in the game dribbled away. Keane went off for Shane Long of West Brom. He used to play for Reading, and he's caused us a few problems at Ashton Gate, but it was hard to see him doing a lot against Croatia, and so it proved.

Andrews headed just wide in injury time, but it didn't really matter by then. Ireland were well beaten, by a Croatian team you wouldn't expect to challenge either. Now they have to play Italy and Spain. It's a very long way to Tipperary, but on this showing they'll be back there soon enough.