I've proofread it several times, but to be honest I'm kind of glazing over a little on some of the details. Let me know if I've failed to filter out fallacious facts. Ooh, I'm alliterating again. It comes over me like a rash sometimes.
The BBC are showing Saturday and Monday on BBC1 and BBC3, the ITV are showing Sunday and Tuesday on ITV1 and ITV4. The BBC are also broadcasting games live on their website, so you can sit in your living room with your laptop balanced precariously on top of the telly, watching two games at once. I love the modern world. Whether ITV are planning the same isn't quite clear from the website, but it appears likely. If not, there's always www.tvcatchup.com, which will show you all the ITV channels live anyway.
Group A
This is the most complicated group. Any combination of the 4 teams could still qualify, with the exception of Poland and the Czech Republic. If either of these teams qualifies, the other one goes home.Greece must beat Russia, or they're eliminated. If they beat Russia by 3 goals and the other game is a draw, they top the group.
Russia only need a point to be sure of progress. If they win they top the group.
Poland definitely progress if they win. If they lose or draw, they're out.
The Czech Republic definitely progress if they win. If they draw, they're also through unless Greece beat Russia, in which case there are various permutations depending on goal difference. If they win, they top the group unless Russia win.
It's interesting to note that Greece goes to the polls on Sunday. Greeks want to reject austerity measures, but fear the consequences. In a tight election, whether they vote for hope or fear may well be influenced by whether their team has sent a "yes we can" or "no we can't" message to the people. Bankers across the world will be cheering on the Russians. I wonder how we should respond to that?
Group B
A point against Denmark is enough for Germany to top the group. Even if they lose, they can only fail to progress if Portugal beat Holland. In this case, Denmark, Germany and Portugal are all on 6 points, and their order comes down to goal difference.Holland are definitely out unless they beat Portugal by two clear goals and Germany beat Denmark. In that case, Germany top the group and Holland go through on goal difference.
Denmark and Portugal are both on 3 points, with 3 goals for and against. If they both lose and Holland win by 2 clear goals, Germany and Holland progress. If they both draw, Portugal progess with Germany on the head-to-head rule. If they both win, we have the situation outlined in the German paragraph above.
If Denmark win and Portugal lose or draw, Denmark top the group and Germany are second.
If Portugal win and Denmark lose or draw, Germany top the group and Portugal are second.
Group C
Ireland are definitely going home. Italy have to beat Ireland or they go home and Spain and Croatia go through, Spain needing to draw to top the group.For the rest of this analysis, assume Italy beat Ireland.
If the other game is won, Italy are second and the other winner top the group.
If the Spain Croatia game is drawn 0-0, then Italy top the group and Spain are second. This is because the head to head would show 3 draws, with Italy having scored 2 goals and Spain and Croatia having scored 1. Spain would be second because of their goals against Ireland.
If Spain and Croatia draw 2-2, or with any higher goal total, both sides go through and Italy go home. This is because the head to head would show 3 draws, with Italy having scored 2 goals and Spain and Croatia having scored 3. Spain would top the group because of their goals against Ireland.
If Spain and Croatia draw 1-1, then all 3 head to head games were drawn 1-1, so placings are determined by goal difference against Ireland.
If Spain and Croatia draw 1-1 and Italy beat Ireland 3-1, things become complicated. Spain go through, but Italy and Croatia now both have 5 points each, with 5 goals for and 3 against. The head-to-head doesn't help, as their game was drawn. In this situation, factors such as the disciplinary record of both sides would come into play.
If Spain and Croatia draw 1-1 and Italy beat Ireland 4-0, then Spain and Italy go through, but both have 5 points, with 6 goals for and 2 against. The same situation as in the previous paragraph applies, to determine who finishes top.
Group D
Sweden are definitely going home.If France and England both win their games, they both go through. As they drew their game, the order would be decided on goal difference. If France win by an equal or higher margin than England, they top their group. If England win by two or more goals than France do, they top the group. If England win by one goal more, they go through unless France score more goals.
There is a possibility, for instance if England win 2-0 and France win 3-2, that both teams will have the same points, goals for and goals against. Again, the head-to-head doesn't help, as their game was drawn. In this situation, factors such as the disciplinary record of both sides would come into play.
If both games are drawn, France top the group with England in second place.
If France and England both lose their games, Ukraine top the group and France or England are second, depending on goal difference. The reverse of the previous discussion about goal difference would apply. England would need to lose by less goals than France to go through. If for instance England lost 1-0 and France lost 2-0, factors such as the disciplinary record of both sides would come into play.
If England win and France lose or draw, England top the group and France are second.
If France win and England draw, France top the group and England are second.
If France win and England lose, France top the group and Ukraine are second.
If France draw and England lose, Ukraine top the group with France second.
If England draw and France lose, England top the group and France are second on the head-to-head rule.
Unfortunately, the option we might all have liked, for England to top the group and host nation Ukraine to come second, is not available.
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